Clik here to view.
•AZ-Sen: Has there ever been a more reluctant-sounding potential candidate than Richard Carmona? Every time he opens his mouth, it's only to say how little he's interested in running. The very first time he surfaced as a possible Senate candidate back in August, he kicked things off by explaining:
“I’m still trying to figure out whether it’s the right thing for me. I enjoy public service. I enjoyed being surgeon general of the United States. I’ve worked in government at local, state and national levels. But I’m not sure if an elected position is the right thing for me. I’ve agreed to at least consider it.”
In September, he added:
"Quite frankly, I'm just not sure it's the right opportunity yet."
And now where are we?
Carmona said part of the holdup is he hadn't considered a career as an elected official, noting he's been relatively apolitical since his return to Tucson. What's more, he hasn't been a straight-down-the-line partisan, having supported both sides of the political spectrum. "This is new territory for me, and I'm really struggling with this," he said.
What makes this even stranger is that Politico's Alexander Burns reports that none other than Barack Obama himself called Carmona to "encourage him to run" for Senate. Given that this phone call supposedly took place back on Sept. 23, that makes Carmona's latest Hamlet-act protestations a bit unseemly, I think. If the president makes a personal request like this, I think you simply tell any reporters who ask that you're "still considering the race and will decide at the appropriate time," or some pablum like that. How difficult is that? I also really have to wonder what makes Carmona so awesome that he's getting this level of attention, particularly in spite of his reticence.
3Q Fundraising:
•AR-04: Tom Cotton (R): $343K raised, $331K cash-on-hand
•MT-Gov: Steve Bullock (D): $157K raised, $328K cash-on-hand (Bullock entered the race on Sept. 7)
•NV-Sen: Rep. Shelley Berkley (D): $1.2 mil raised, $3.2 mil cash-on-hand
•NV-Sen: Sen. Dean Heller (R): $675K raised, $2.8 mil cash-on-hand
•WI-Sen: Mark Neumann (R): $300K raised (he's super-wealthy and can write his own checks, so this haul doesn't matter much, but his campaign says this was all from outside contributions)
Senate:
•UT-Sen, UT-04: State Rep. Chris Herrod, who would be thrown into the same district as fellow Republican Rep. Stephen Sandstrom under a proposed new state House map, says he's considering instead a challenge to Sen. Orrin Hatch—something no one has definitively said they'd undertake so far. I have to wonder if he'll actually pull the trigger, though, because Sandstrom also wants to move up (to the House). Previously Sandstrom had been talked about as a possible primary challenger to Gov. Gary Herbert, then as a successor to Rep. Jason Chaffetz. But Chaffetz of course decided not to go after Hatch, which caused Sandstrom to file in the 2nd District, ostensibly aimed at Dem Rep. Jim Matheson. Now, however, Sandstrom says he's interested in the new (and open) 4th CD, even though its shape has yet to be decided. So assuming Sandstrom follows through on his congressional plans, that solves Herrod's redistricting problem, and removes an incentive for taking on Hatch.
•WV-Sen: PPP asked about Joe Manchin again in their most recent poll (the one which had Earl Ray Tomblin up a single point right before election day), and unsurprisingly they find that his lead in a hypothetical over GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is little changed from early September (49-38 vs. 52-36). In case Bill Maloney wants to launch a suicide run instead of seeking a rematch, he'd lose by a comical 60-29. More concerning are the numbers from a theoretical 2014 matchup between Capito and Sen. Jay Rockefeller; she'd actually lead 48-44. Rockefeller is currently 74 years old and could retire rather than seek another term.
Gubernatorial:
•KY-Gov: Dem Gov. Steve Beshear has a new ad out touting his lawsuit against the EPA over regulations affecting coal mining, in response to some RGA-backed ads attacking Beshear for supposedly "failing to stop President Obama" from enacting, believe it or not, the cap and trade bill. Of course, that piece of legislation is long since dead in the water, and the ad is almost misleading enough that if I were the Beshear campaign, I'd consider trying to get it taken off the air.
House:
•AZ-09: Could ex-Rep. Harry Mitchell make a comeback? A former chief of staff for Mitchell, who served the old 5th CD for two terms before losing in last year's red tsunami, tweeted earlier this week: "Harry Mitchell for Congress? Don't rule it out folks." I'd believe it, though I'd point out that Mitchell is now 71 years old.
•FL-13: We only mentioned him for the first time just the other day, but former Dem state Rep. Keith Fitzgerald officially launched his campaign against third-term GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan on Thursday.
•IL-12: Shira Toeplitz reports that former state Rep. Jay Hoffman, the strongest candidate Democrats were able to recruit in the 13th District, may switch over to the 12th CD now that Rep. Jerry Costello is retiring. I'm not sure I agree with the characterization that the 12th is necessarily bluer than the 13th—at least by presidential numbers, they're identical—but the big advantage the former has over the latter is that no incumbent Republican is seeking re-election there. Rep. Tim Johnson is trying to continue his career in the 13th, and if Hoffman changes races (he isn't denying the possibility), that would leave us in a serious hole.
Shira also mentions state Rep. John Bradley as another possible Dem name, and adds that Costello's son, Jerry Costello II, will not run. Meanwhile, an article in the Belleville News-Democrat reports that Dem state Rep. Tom Holbrook says he's considering the race. The piece also mentions two other possible names: St. Clair County Board Chairman Mark Kern and St. Clair County State's Attorney Brendan Kelly. Meanwhile, Madison County Circuit Clerk Matt Melucci says he's not interested.
•IL-13: Related to the bullet just above, I really have to wonder what Jason Plummer is thinking here. The 2010 Republican Lt. Gov. nominee had reportedly been considering a run in the 12th CD, against Rep. Jerry Costello. So you'd think with Costello's retirement announcement, he'd be particularly stoked. Instead, though, he's apparently "leaning toward" a bid in the 13th, which would pit him in a primary against veteran GOP Rep. Tim Johnson. What's more, even if he managed to stage an upset and win the nomination, Plummer would then have to face a serious general election campaign in the general. He'd still face a stiff race in the 12th, but at least he wouldn't have to knock off an incumbent member of Congress for the privilege of doing so. But if Plummer wants to be a thorn in Johnson's side, I'm all for it.
•NC-08: State Rep. Fred Steen is the latest Republican to say he may run for Congress against Rep. Larry Kissell in the 8th CD. Interestingly, Steen also suggests that Robin Hayes, the man Kissell ousted back in 2008 who is now chair of the NC GOP, could possibly make a comeback bid. Hayes hasn't publicly said anything on this topic, but Steen says that if Hayes got in, it would be "an easy decision… not to run."
•OH-11: Ah, Fudge… Dem Rep. Marcia Fudge, that is. She looks like she's the latest member of the Congressional Black Caucus to draw a potentially stiff primary challenge, in this case from state Sen. Nina Turner, who filed papers to create an exploratory committee on Wednesday. (Unusually, she formed a 527 with the IRS, rather than a typical FEC committee.) Turner represents a district on Cleveland's east side, which is very close to Fudge's home base of Warrensville Heights, where she was once mayor. Since this district now stretches south to Akron, I wouldn't be surprised if a politician from that area decides to get in as well—and with two Cleveland-area candidates potentially running, that could split the vote and allow someone from Akron to win.
•WI-07: State Rep. Janet Bewley says she won't challenge GOP freshman Sean Duffy, and I'm surprised anyone was even asking, since ex-state Sen. Pat Kreitlow (generally considered a good recruit) has been running since April. Bewley also ensured she'd never be asked this question again, by going out of her way to add: “The thought of running. Oh my god. Why in the world would anyone want to do such a thing. I’m dead serious. Why would anyone want to run for Congress?”
Other Races:
•KY-AG: Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway is up on the air with his first ads of the election campaign, one which talks about how he's saved Kentucky taxpayers money, and the other about his cybercrime unit. As per usual, no word on the size of the buy.
Grab Bag:
•Florida: PPP's miscellany includes some approval numbers for Sen. Marco Rubio, who evidently doesn't walk on water. His job approvals are now 44-39, down from 42-35 in June and 43-31 in March. So his negatives keep going up while his positives mostly stay the same. Also, by a 36-30 margin, Florida voters say that having Rubio on the ticket as VP (an offer he recently said he'd refuse) would make them less like to vote for the Republican ticket. Meanwhile, Dems still retain a narrow 46-45 edge in the generic congressional ballot, but that's down from 45-40 in June.
Redistricting Roundup:
•AZ Redistricting: Jennifer Steen, a professor at Arizona State University, writes in with an important observation about the "draft" nature of the new Arizona congressional map. While I've been saying (as have many other commentators) that we probably should not expect big changes before we get a final version, the commission's experience in 2001 actually shows quite the opposite. Below, you can compare the draft and final maps from the last round of redistricting:
Clik here to view.
