Marquette Univ. Law School. 6/13-16. Likely voters. MoE ±4.1% (±5.4% for Republican primary sample). (2/16-19 in parentheses, registered voters):
Tammy Baldwin (D): 41 (42)
Tommy Thompson (R): 49 (48)Tammy Baldwin (D): 44 (44)
Mark Neumann (R): 44 (40)Tammy Baldwin (D): 45 (45)
Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 39 (37)Tammy Baldwin (D): 45 (--)
Eric Hovde (R): 36 (--)
Tommy Thompson (R): 34After all the sound and fury in Wisconsin over the last few months, and all the pundit pronouncements of how the gubernatorial recall election on June 5 was a game-changing moment that instantly doooooooomed Dems and put the Badger State into play presidentially, you'd think that something might have actually changed. The first post-recall poll from a credible pollster, though (Marquette University Law School, who came the closest of any pollster to pegging the final total in the gubernatorial recall), finds the needle hasn't moved much at all: at the presidential level, it's still leaning in Barack Obama's direction, and at the Senate level, there's still a wide range of possible outcomes, depending on who the GOP manages to nominate.
Mark Neumann (R): 16
Eric Hovde (R): 14
Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 10
Undecided: 25
The Marquette poll finds Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-43, not an overwhelming lead but a solid one. That's down from Marquette's most recent pre-recall poll (where Obama led 52-40), but also an improvement from the Marquette poll before that, in early May, where Obama led only 46-44. (Both of those polls were of likely special election voters; today's poll shifts to likely November voters.) It's also right where you'd expect the presidential race in Wisconsin to be... assuming that the nationwide averages seeing an overall Obama lead of 1-2 points are correct, with Obama performing 3.5 points better in 2008 in Wisconsin than nationwide, he should be running ahead by 5 or 6 points in Wisconsin. In other words, Marquette finds him right where you'd reasonably expect him to be in Wisconsin, with his standing neither improved nor hurt by the last few months' events.
At the Senate level, there was also very little movement in the marquee matchup, which is between Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin and Republican ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson for the open seat being vacated by Dem Herb Kohl. A 6-point lead for Thompson in February (Marquette's most recent look at the Senate, before the recall frenzy and using registered voters) is now an 8-point lead, again showing few minds seem to have changed.
The most interesting story in the Senate polling, at this point, may be that there's a huge electability gap between Thompson and the other Republicans, in terms of how they perform against Baldwin. That seems to have mostly to do with name rec: former four-term Gov. Thompson (who has 48/36 favorables, a remarkably low 'unknown' rate of only 16%) is better-known than Baldwin (27/30), who in turn is better known than the minor-league Republicans (ex-Rep. Mark Neumann at 24/24, state House speaker Jeff Fitzgerald at 17/22, and wealthy businessman Eric Hovde at 14/13).
It might seem like a good idea to root for one of the lesser Republicans (like Hovde, who seems to be coming on the strongest of the three, thanks to his ability to run a lot of TV advertising out of his own pocket) to make it out of the primary, but that's not looking likely, as Thompson looks pretty securely in first place in the GOP field. If there were only one Republican running to Thompson's right, the anti-Thompson candidate might have a shot at prevailing, but as it is, the clown-car effect (where the anti-Thompson vote is split three ways) will probably save his bacon. Baldwin may still be able to eke out a narrow victory in November even against Thompson; Thompson is nearly universally known and doesn't have much room for growth, while Baldwin's share will undoubtedly go up as she gets better-known among base Democrats. If this poll is right, though, getting to 50%+1 will require running the table on almost all the undecideds, which is a pretty heavy lift for Baldwin.