Tammy Baldwin (D): 44 (42)
Tommy Thompson (R): 46 (50)
Undecided: 10 (8)Tammy Baldwin (D): 44 (40)
Mark Neumann (R): 43 (44)
Undecided: 13 (15)Tammy Baldwin (D): 44
Jeff Fitzgerald (R): 40
Undecided: 16Tammy Baldwin (D): 44
Frank Lasee (R): 37
Undecided: 19
Back in August, PPP put out some surprisingly pessimistic numbers in the Wisconsin Senate race, showing that the open seat (being vacated by long-time Sen. Herb Kohl) was at real risk of being a Democratic loss unless Russ Feingold ran. This week's PPP poll shows some recovery: Rep. Tammy Baldwin -- who at this point is pretty universally expected to be the Democratic nominee -- is running basically even with the main GOP contenders, ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann. There's still a long way to go, of course, but the crosstabs show that Baldwin has finally consolidated the Democratic vote (running 86-8 among Dems vs. Thompson), something she had more trouble with last time. Her next task is picking up undecideds, especially among indies, where she currently trails Thompson 47-34.
That's particularly good news about the trend, given the other results obtained from this sample, which find Barack Obama with a diminished victory margin (leading Mitt Romney by 5, instead of 11 in August) in Wisconsin and with voters suffering from a bit more recall fatigue concerning Scott Walker. Baldwin's numbers are the only trend we have to go on in the Senate race, since PPP didn't test Feingold (who has been clear about not running) or ex-Rep. Steve Kagen (who hasn't ruled out running, but isn't expected to at this point) this time.
Thompson has a lot less room to grow than Baldwin: after his long gubernatorial tenure, nearly everyone has an opinion about him (42/42), while Baldwin, representing 1/8 of the state, is a bit of a blank slate at 28/30. (The other GOPers -- Neumann at 23/30, Fitzgerald at 20/33, and Lasee at 6/19 are more obscure.) Bear in mind, though, that Thompson -- who, sadly, is what passes for a moderate in the GOP these days -- may not be the nominee; PPP's look at the primary, where Thompson narrowly leads the 4-way heat, finds a lot of desire for a more conservative candidate. If the right wing coalesces around one of Fitzgerald or Neumann instead of splitting their votes, Thompson (the strongest candidate for the general) isn't surviving the primary.